$3 Billion Options Expiry Looms Over Bitcoin and Ethereum — Calm Before the Next Shock?

Nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, placing derivatives markets under intense scrutiny.

Going into today’s options expiry, interest will be on whether the recent price stabilization marks a temporary pause or the beginning of a new directional move.

$3 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Tests Market Nerves After Liquidation Shock

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,372, with a max pain around $74,000 and total notional open interest exceeding $2.53 billion.

Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading near $1,950, with approximately $425 million in notional open interest and a max-pain level around $2,100.

Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

These figures suggest that a large share of open positions would benefit if prices drifted higher toward max pain levels, but sentiment in the options market remains cautious.

Despite the recent rebound from last week’s sharp sell-off, options metrics suggest traders are still hedging against downside risk.

Analysts at Laevitas noted that Bitcoin’s risk reversals remain heavily skewed toward puts.

“BTC 1-week and 1-month 25-delta RRs have recovered from extreme lows but remain notably negative at approximately −13 and −11 vols, respectively, indicating persistent demand for downside protection,” the derivatives analyst stated.

Bitcoin Delta RRS. Source: Laevitas on X

Risk reversals are widely used to gauge sentiment in derivatives markets. Meanwhile, sustained negative readings typically signal that traders are paying a premium for protective puts, often reflecting fears of further declines.

Liquidations, Put Skew Shock, and a Fragile Shift Toward Calls as Expiry Nears

The current cautious tone follows a dramatic market event in which Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000, triggering widespread liquidations and extreme derivatives imbalances.

Analysts at Deribit said the move caused one of the most pronounced shifts toward put (sales) demand seen in years.

“BTC broke $70K last week, triggering cascading liquidations, and one of the most extreme put skew moves in years before bouncing back toward the 67K range,” Deribit analysts said.

Such events often leave a lasting psychological impact on markets, with traders remaining defensive even after prices stabilize.

More recently, however, derivatives positioning has begun to shift, with some traders rotating back into call (purchase) options as volatility declines from panic levels. Deribit analysts observed that the market is now at a critical inflection point.