82% of SMBs See Smooth Sailing, Even as Cash Flow Wavers

Most Main Street firms say they’ll make it through the next two years, but data suggest that optimism might be running ahead of reality.

The September edition of PYMNTS Intelligence’s “SMB Growth Monitor,” “Main Street SMB Confidence Rises While Cash Flow Strain Lingers,” shows confidence climbing to its highest point since PYMNTS Intelligence began tracking small business sentiment three years ago. However, many small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) continue to wrestle with rising costs, late payments and labor shortages.

The report draws from a survey of 513 SMBs in the United States fielded in June and finds that 82% of them expect to still be operating two years from now, a record high.

Yet that same optimism obscures uneven financial health and widening differences between micro and mid-market firms. For banks and payments providers, that disconnect may prove more instructive than the confidence numbers themselves.

• Micro SMBs, the smallest operations, posted the biggest jump in confidence, up seven points since March to 75%, narrowing but not closing a gap with larger peers.
• Compared to six months ago, 54% of SMBs report stronger financial health, suggesting recovery momentum. Yet micro firms remain the weakest cohort. The smallest companies experience more frequent cash flow strain and delayed payments, signs that resilience hasn’t yet reached balance sheets.
• Rising costs remain the biggest drag, as 34% of all SMBs cite higher costs for goods and services as a negative factor, with 14% calling it their single largest challenge. Micro firms cite cash flow and late payments, while mid-sized ones point to labor expenses and benefits, a split that highlights how scale changes exposure.

That divergence continues across sectors. Construction and utilities stand out as rare bright spots, with two-thirds of firms in those industries reporting stronger financial health than six months earlier, more than 10 percentage points above the overall average. Meanwhile, mid-sized companies report a different kind of strain, as 26% say they can’t find enough workers, a rate four times higher than among micro SMBs. For them, survival risk isn’t about demand but supply.

The research collectively paints a picture of Main Street’s recovery that is broad but brittle. Demand is back, as 36% of micro businesses say customer demand is lifting their results, yet many of those same firms are still running on thin margins. The optimism, in other words, may reflect psychological resilience more than financial strength.

For financial institutions and FinTechs, the report’s closing prescription is targeted growth tools and liquidity support where optimism runs hottest but fragility runs deepest. Marketing enablement, faster settlement and flexible working-capital solutions may prove as important as credit in sustaining SMB momentum into 2026.

The lesson from this wave of PYMNTS data may not be that SMBs are safe, but that they feel safe, and that distinction could shape how lenders, acquirers and payment providers read Main Street risk in the year ahead.

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