Bank of America: Managing Risk Is the Best Defense Against Disruption

Watch more: BofA: Working Capital Efficiency Becomes Survival Tactic in Wait-and-See Economy

Global trade makes the world go ’round, but the world’s macro issues can send that same trade to a screeching halt.

“We’re here to facilitate global commerce. That includes everything from transactional mechanics between buyers and sellers to financing, risk mitigation and working capital optimization,” Geoff Brady, head of global trade and supply chain finance at Bank of America, told PYMNTS during a discussion for the 2025 “What’s Next in Payments Series: Trade Offs.”

Against a backdrop of macroeconomic disruptions and geopolitical whack-a-mole, the global payments and supply chain finance ecosystem is being forced to navigate new and uncertain terrain as tariffs rise and fall like seasonal weather patterns.

“Part of the reason there is such a thing as trade finance is because of uncertainty,” Brady said. “You have buyers and sellers in different parts of the world that don’t always have a long history of dealing with each other … different jurisdictions, different currencies. That risk is where banks step in.”

This clear-eyed view of risk as something not to be feared but to be managed through proximity, intelligence and infrastructure, is crucial for businesses trying to chart a steady course through choppy waters, he said.

As inflation, interest rate cycles, and cross-border tensions reshape the marketplace, uncertainty is evolving in tandem. Whereas the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic were sudden, systemic shocks with widespread impact, today’s environment is defined more by ambiguity than outright chaos. Businesses, particularly in the mid-market segment, are struggling to determine which macro signals are real and which are merely precautionary.

For this segment, Brady’s perspective offers not just technical insight but also a strategic blueprint. Still, he said he believes there’s one discipline that should transcend all macro cycles: working capital optimization.

“If you’re efficient in good times, that’s great,” he said. “If you’re efficient in uncertain times, that’s essential. … There’s the part where the uncertainty is just the unknown. You don’t feel it immediately. But you plan around it.”

That planning has taken on new urgency in recent months, as companies recalibrate capital expenditures, artificial intelligence investments, and product roadmaps around shifting regulations, tariff threats and disrupted supply chains.

While working capital may not be as buzzy as blockchain or AI, Brady positioned it as foundational to business resilience. And companies are finally catching on.

“Ten years ago, most corporates would’ve said, ‘Yeah, we probably should focus more on this,’” Brady said. “Now, they do look at it. But many still could go deeper.”

Bank of America itself provides clients with a spectrum of solutions — from supply chain finance and receivables securitization to inventory financing. But it’s not just about products; it’s about simplifying a complex ecosystem.

“At the end of the day, it’s just a receivable,” Brady said. “It’s someone’s payable, someone’s receivable. Ultimately, someone owes someone else money for a good or service. Our job is to help facilitate that.”

In other words, strip away the alphabet soup of trade finance tools and what remains is helping businesses get paid faster and with less risk.

If the past three years have taught supply chain leaders anything, it’s that digital transformation isn’t a luxury. It’s a requirement. The pandemic forced even the most paper-dependent enterprises to rethink their infrastructure. Now, many of them are asking not if they should digitize, but how fast and how far.

“Pre-COVID, banks were trying to pull corporates into digital,” Brady said. “Now it’s the corporates coming to us. They’ve seen the impact of inefficiency and concentration risk. They’re asking, ‘Can you get us a better model here?’”

This demand-side pivot is fueling products like Bank of America’s Open Account Automation — a once-manual document transmission process now digitized for speed and transparency. But digital transformation isn’t limited to efficiency gains. It’s becoming a critical tool in risk management.

“Many of the innovations we’re seeing … are focused on risk,” Brady said. “Credit analysis, AI modeling … these are core areas where innovation can plug directly into our control processes.”

Brady said he sees AI not just as an abstract promise but as a concrete tool for scenario planning.

“Imagine asking a quantum engine to show you risk scenarios for every event that could happen in the next 10 years,” he said. “It’s not fully there yet, but it’s getting closer.”

Despite technological momentum, Brady acknowledged that businesses have approached 2025 with guarded optimism.

“Most of our clients are in a bit of a wait-and-see mode,” he said.

This hesitancy is driving companies to defer major capital expenditure decisions, scale back hiring and delay product launches. But it’s also encouraging more strategic introspection around doubling down on fundamentals like efficiency, liquidity and partner trust.

“You can’t innovate your way out of uncertainty,” Brady said. “But if you’re smart about how you incorporate innovation into your risk framework, it becomes part of your process.

“There are a couple of things that are always a good idea for our clients,” he added. “Be efficient. Optimize your working capital. And don’t wait for the uncertainty to pass. Plan through it.”

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