Betting websites are now gambling on a US recession
A US recession is looking likely, as the Trump administration oversaw a catastrophic week in the last few days. During a speech about tariffs, the DOW dropped nearly 650 points, while prices are expected to skyrocket as Canada, China, Europe, and Mexico will all be hit with Trump’s tariffs.
It now seems that gamblers and betting websites have cottoned on, as sites like Polymarket have seen a huge jump in interest. One bet with a $265, 690 volume behind it predicts that there’s a nearly 40% chance of it happening. This is up from the 20% on just March 1, pre-Trump speech.
However, it isn’t one singular factor that is causing betters to reach for sites like Polymarket to make a quick buck. The US has been dealing with sweeping changes to its government as Elon Musk’s DOGE (Department of Government Effeciency) has wracked institutions with mass layoffs and funding being slashed across the board.
According to analysts and economists, this has led to a feeling of uncertainty under the Trump administration. With basic produce like eggs reaching ridiculous prices or businesses now having to deal with higher payments due to the tariffs, it’s looking like a recession could be likely.
Everything is going down right nowThose trading stocks have also felt the pinch. The S&P 500 was down 6% over the last two weeks. Some companies on the market have dropped as low as 25%, with various restrictions expected to continue to plummet.
BCA Research, an independent investment research company, has stated that “recession risk is back” in a recent post. It now expects the second quarter (April – June) to be when the recession could hit.
Polymarket is at the center of multiple bets relating to the Trump administration’s actions. These include whether or not tariffs will be removed or who Trump plans to pardon. It’s a good insight into how a certain portion of the world views the ongoing turmoil in the US.
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