Bitcoin Price Risks a 15% Drop if This Key Level Breaks Before 2025 Ends — Here’s Why

The Bitcoin price is under renewed pressure. BTC is down about 4% over the past 24 hours and nearly 10% over the past 30 days, as selling pressure builds across the crypto market. While traders debate rebound versus breakdown, a critical long-term level has now surfaced that could decide how Bitcoin ends the year.

Both price structure and cycle analysis are converging around the same zone. If Bitcoin fails to defend it before the year closes, downside risks increase sharply.

A Make-or-Break Bitcoin Price Level Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin is currently trading close to the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA), which sits near $82,800. This level is not just another support. It is one of Bitcoin’s most important long-term cycle markers.

The 2Y SMA is calculated using daily closes, but it is interpreted on a monthly closing basis for cycle analysis. What matters is not intraday price action, but where Bitcoin closes the month.

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Monthly BTC Data: TradingView

Last time when the Bitcoin price dropped under this SMA line in mid-2022, it corrected an additional 51% before attempting an upmove. That is why December 31 matters.

When the December monthly candle closes, the market locks in a full month of data. That candle becomes the official signal used by analysts to judge whether Bitcoin is holding a long-term trend or entering deeper structural weakness.