Can XRP Overcome Bearish October History With Key Catalysts Ahead?

September proved to be a volatile month for XRP (XRP) and the broader crypto market. Still, the altcoin rose 3.66%, a notable reversal from August’s 8.15% decline. 

As October begins, seasonality skews bearish. Over the past 12 years, XRP has closed in the red during seven Octobers. Even so, several potential catalysts could challenge that pattern in 2025.

Seasonality vs Catalysts: XRP Sets up for a Pivotal October 

According to data from CryptoRank, XRP’s average October return stands at -4.58%, making it one of the weakest months for the altcoin besides February and June.

This year, the pattern held in February, when XRP fell 29.3%. However, the coin defied seasonality in June, rising 2.95% and breaking a seven-year red streak.

XRP Monthly Returns. Source: CryptoRank

With ‘Uptober’ approaching, analysts see a chance that XRP could once again buck the trend and deliver gains. Central to this potential shift are impending decisions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on multiple spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications.

The SEC is scheduled to rule on ETF filings from several asset managers between October 18 and 25. These include Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton.