Farmers’ Outlook for Exports Sinks as Trade War Threatens Demand

U.S. farmers are reportedly concerned about the current trade war with China, as that country buys about half of U.S. exports of soybeans.

A drop in demand for that commodity — which amounted to nearly $25 billion in sales by U.S. farmers to customers around the world — would impact not only farmers but also suppliers of tractors, fertilizer and seeds, Bloomberg reported Friday (April 11).

Currently, China has purchased no soybeans from the U.S. for the next year, soybean futures are down 10% from a year ago and soybean prices are the lowest they’ve been since December, according to the report.

During another trade war with China during President Donald Trump’s first term, demand for U.S. soybeans slowed, domestic inventories more than tripled and the administration provided a $28 billion bailout to the farm economy, the report said.

In addition, Brazil established stronger ties with China and overtook the U.S. as the world’s biggest exporter of soybeans, per the report.

The uncertainty around tariffs has contributed to a decline in farmer sentiment about the future, according to the report. In addition, farmers’ outlook for agricultural exports over the next five years has sunk to the lowest point since that question was added to a survey in 2019, the report said, citing Purdue University and CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer.

Trump increased his previously announced tariffs on China Wednesday (April 9) in an executive order issued after that country retaliated against the U.S. by boosting its tariffs on U.S. goods.

In the same order, Trump announced a pause to reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries after those countries contacted representatives of the U.S. to negotiate a solution to trade issues.

Announcing his decision in a Wednesday post on Truth Social, Trump said: “At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”

During a Tuesday (April 8) Senate Finance Committee hearing, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) expressed concerns that the U.S. tariffs will result in other countries responding with countermeasures targeting specific industries.

“One of the things I’m hearing from my constituents back home is that trade retaliation does not fall on everyone equally,” Young said. “It could have a different effect on a New York tech firm than it might have on a Hoosier soybean farmer.”

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