Gold’s trillion‑dollar climb shows Bitcoin has room to catch up

Gold is on a tear in 2025, rallying to all-time highs above $3,400/oz as investors seek safety in a turbulent macro environment. The precious metal’s year-to-date (YTD) gains are firmly in double digits, reflecting robust safe-haven demand.

Gold’s sprint to new highs and Bitcoin’s choppy start to the year might look different on the surface. However, both assets are reacting to the same macro script: eroding confidence in fiat money, volatile geopolitics, and deeply negative real yields. A closer read of market data shows that the “digital gold” narrative is firming, with the two stores of value moving in tandem more often and for the same reasons, even if Bitcoin’s price action lags.

Gold entered 2025 at nearly $2,600, adding roughly one‑third to its price and about $9 trillion to its global market cap. Bitcoin opened the year close to $92,000, slipped to an early‑April low near $83,000 on tariff‑driven risk aversion, and now trades around $88,700, roughly a 4% decline year to date.

While that gap is stark, correlation tells another story. The patterns we’ve seen in the 30-day, 90-day, and 365-day rolling correlation coefficients echo prior cycles: gold rallies first as a liquidity hedge, then Bitcoin catches up once capital starts hunting for higher‑beta expressions of the same thesis.

A combination of macroeconomic factors underpins gold’s explosive rally.

Ten‑year Treasury notes hover near 4.5 percent while core inflation sits just under 5%, locking real yields below zero. In this environment, an asset with no coupon suddenly offers relative appeal. Gold’s zero‑yield nature was once a drawback; with money losing value in real terms, that handicap evaporates. Bitcoin, which pays no income either, fits the same playbook.

The Fed’s balance sheet stands above $10 trillion, and large fiscal deficits continue on both sides of the Atlantic. Survey work from the University of Michigan shows long‑run inflation expectations at the highest level since 2013. Investors who fear and expect currency debasement look first to gold, and in turn Bitcoin, whose fixed 21 million‑coin supply echoes gold’s scarcity

War in Ukraine raised the specter of reserve confiscation, prompting central banks in China, India, and the Gulf to accelerate gold purchases. Those official flows totaled 1,136 tonnes in 2023 and another 388 tonnes in the first quarter this year. Bitcoin is not yet a formal reserve asset, but the logic resonates: an apolitical bearer instrument cannot be frozen.

Whenever sanctions or tariff headlines intensify, both assets tend to firm together, even if Bitcoin reacts with extra volatility. The Trump administration’s plans to implement a “crypto reserve” with ample Bitcoin holdings further support this.

Furthermore, swings in the world’s de facto reserve currency, the US dollar, force many investors to turn away from cash and bonds. A weaker dollar magnifies both gold and Bitcoin in dollar terms. The DXY index fell 5% from its February peak to early April as the market priced in fewer Fed hikes and fresh trade friction. Gold set daily records during that slide; Bitcoin rallied nine percent off its tariff‑panic low. Their sensitivity to the greenback is another point of convergence.

Flows into gold and spot Bitcoin ETFs further confirm this thesis. Investment flows prove that institutions group the assets within the same “sound‑money” bucket. Net inflows to gold‑backed ETFs hit $8.2 billion in the first three months, reversing two straight years of net selling.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs, still limited to foreign markets and futures‑based products in the US, drew about $540 million net. The dollar amount is smaller, but the directional alignment is clear: capital searching for inflation insurance is spreading across both metals, one physical and ancient, the other digital and emergent.

However, with these shared drivers, Bitcoin failed to match gold’s pace this year. This could be due to several factors. First, gold’s $13 trillion float dwarfs Bitcoin’s $1.7 trillion. Large allocators can deploy size into gold without shifting price; similar flows into Bitcoin move the tape sharply, prompting traders to stagger entries.

Second, the lack of federal regulation regarding Bitcoin could be keeping many US asset managers and investors on the sidelines, even as they buy gold. Passage of the broader crypto regulatory agenda, or its repeal, could unleash new demand in the second half of the year.

Finally, equity traders still treat Bitcoin as a high‑beta tech proxy during sell‑offs, so tax‑driven de‑risking at quarter‑end weighed harder on BTC than on bullion. Past cycles show that once macro drivers dominate, this equity beta fades.

Correlation alone does not guarantee equal returns, but it does show that investors increasingly perceive both assets through the same lens: limited supply in a world of unbridled issuance elsewhere. Every historical bout of money printing has featured a two‑stage response: gold first, then the harder‑charging alternative.

Silver played that second role in the 1970s, while Bitcoin fulfilled that role in the 2010s. The 2025 setup feels familiar. Negative real returns on cash invite continual demand for immutable stores of value. Central banks keep absorbing bullion; institutions nibble at Bitcoin products.

If gold’s new plateau above $3,000 becomes the market’s reference point, the monetary premium implied by a $9 trillion jump in its capitalization hints at what could flow into Bitcoin once more gatekeepers open.

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