How Could Oil Prices Over the Next 4 Weeks Pressure Bitcoin?
Oil markets have abruptly returned to the center of crypto’s risk matrix as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz intensify.
Against this backdrop, the prospect of a four-week disruption, as estimated by President Trump, could ripple far beyond energy.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock Threatens to Tighten Liquidity and Rattle Crypto MarketsOn Sunday, President Trump said that the conflict with Iran could last four weeks, noting that this timeline reflects planning and acknowledges the strength of Iran, while remaining open to future talks.
Meanwhile, Polymarket reports that shipping giant Maersk has suspended all transit through the Strait, one of the world’s most critical oil corridors.
BREAKING: Maersk, one of the world's largest shipping companies, suspends all transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 1, 2026Roughly 20% of global crude supply flows through the narrow passage between Iran and Oman. Even without a confirmed full blockade, tanker insurance premiums have surged, and traders are pricing in potential supply shocks.
According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, oil’s “fair value” could range from $1 to $15 per barrel depending on the severity of a one-month disruption.
Goldman estimates the following effects on the fair value of oil prices in scenarios for one-month disruptions to oil flows through the Strait:
+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release)
+$12 for a full… https://t.co/yD07qFkNk4 pic.twitter.com/o8IUkBSxT5
A full closure without offsets could add $15, while partial disruptions would have more muted effects. In extreme cases, some analysts have floated crude spiking toward $120–$150.
If the Middle East WAR ESCALATE market will collapse