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Lux Capital’s Big Warning

DATE POSTED:March 3, 2026

A venture firm just said the quiet part out loud: Things aren’t as copacetic in startup land as those sky-high AI valuations would suggest. 

Lux Capital on Tuesday published a letter it had sent to founders it has funded, urging them to prepare for a slew of business risks. The venture capital firm, which has backed Anduril and Ramp, noted that “signals suggest something is off,” observing that 10-year bond yields had fallen even while stocks were near record highs. That, the letter added, is “sometimes a recession indicator.”