Prediction Pulse: Kalshi, Polymarket bet on Hassett for Fed chair, plus recession and dildos

Welcome to the very first edition of Prediction Pulse, your weekly dive into what people are betting on, and the big numbers driving those wagers.

Why start this now, you ask? Well, unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably noticed that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are quietly reshaping the way we track public opinion. In fact, they’ve been stealing the spotlight from traditional polls. Case in point, during the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket left most pundits and papers in the dust with forecasts that proved more accurate than the pros.

Since then, things have snowballed. Elon Musk’s xAI has teamed up with Kalshi. Donald Trump tapped Kalshi board member Brian Quintenz to head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. And New York’s mayoral race? It’s funneled millions into the prediction markets.

This week has been no different. From high-stakes bets on whether a recession is looming, to the utterly bizarre market on dildos being thrown at WNBA games, we’ve got the highlights.

What’s on this week’s prediction markets Kalshi

Trump has once again sent prediction markets into overdrive, this time with a few casual comments about who might replace Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chair.

On the rumor mill are Kevin Hassett from the National Economic Council, Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, Christopher Waller, a current Fed Governor, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Chatting on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Trump played favorites, sort of.

“He’s very good,” Trump said of Warsh, before adding the kind of disclaimer only Trump can deliver. “Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”

Kalshi traders back Waller for Fed Chair as odds swing sharply after Trump comments. Credit: Kalshi

The market reaction was fairly swift. Despite being completely snubbed in Trump’s shout-outs, Waller shot to the top with a 47% chance of snagging the role. Hassett slipped to 34% and Warsh, even with Trump’s praise, limped in at 14%. The moral of the story is that in prediction markets, sometimes silence speaks louder than compliments.

On the other end of the spectrum, bettors are still debating whether the country is heading for a recession this year. This market has been dragging on for months, however, but it remains a telling snapshot of the national mood. Kalshi now puts the odds at 12%, down sharply from a peak of 64.8% during the scare in May. Polymarket paints a similar picture, hovering at about 14% after hitting 66% at the same peak.

Polymarket

On Polymarket, there is an entirely different kind of bet attracting attention. Despite objections from players and coaches, multiple green sex toys have been tossed onto the court during live WNBA games in the past week. The crypto-based prediction market is letting people wager on whether more of these disruptions will happen, after one anonymous bettor walked away with more than $6,000 from the latest illegal stunt.

Polymarket bettors nearly unanimous on another WNBA dildo toss by week’s end. Credit: Polymarket

Before the Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries tip off, Polymarket has already seen thousands of dollars wagered on whether a specific type of sex toy will make its way onto the floor. By midday Friday, the odds were essentially at one hundred percent that a dildo would be thrown, across several similar markets. There is even a market on the color of the object in question. Fewer than one percent of bettors think it will be green or yellow.

It may turn out to be just a flash in the pan, but the combined trading volume on Polymarket’s current dildo markets has topped half a million dollars. It is a perfect example of how prediction platforms can turn viral moments into financial opportunities, even when those moments involve actions forbidden by league officials. Kalshi has stayed far away from this mess, while some Polymarket bettors appear willing to push the boundaries to secure a win.

BREAKING: The suspect accused of throwing a green dildo at last night's Phoenix Mercury game just appeared in court.

Kaden Lopez, 18, is accused of hitting someone with the sex toy. Lopez faces at least two charges, including assault and disorderly conduct.

Free the homie pic.twitter.com/YOqvrKbNVM

— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) August 7, 2025

At least arrests are now being made for throwing dildos. The hope is that will deter both the behavior and the betting on it, although the Polymarket Sports account on X is still arguing the arrested fan should not be in jail.

Even with all the cash flying around, Polymarket isn’t making much from these bets since they skip charging fees. It’s a classic move. Use viral buzz to lure in more players. Fun for them, sure. For us? Hard pass. Keep the toys in the toy box.

Featured image: Canva

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