Strategy (MSTR) Earnings Among 5 US Data Points To Flip Bitcoin Market This Week

Bitcoin enters the first full week of February under mounting macro pressure, trading in a volatile sub-$80,000 range as risk appetite weakens and markets brace for key US labor data.

With recession fears resurfacing, ETF flows turning cautious, and speculation growing around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, this week’s economic calendar could prove decisive for near-term BTC sentiment.

5 US Economic Events To Influence Bitcoin and Crypto Sentiment This Week

From job openings to payrolls, each data point feeds into expectations around rate cuts—still one of Bitcoin’s most powerful macro catalysts. Here’s what to watch.

US Economic Calendar for This Week. Source: MarketWatch JOLTS Job Openings

The JOLTS Job Openings report for December 2025, due at 10:00 AM ET, will provide insight into labor demand by tracking the number of unfilled jobs in the US.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect roughly 7.1 million openings, broadly unchanged from November’s revised 7.146 million, which already undershot expectations and signaled cooling momentum.

A downside surprise would reinforce the narrative of a softening labor market, strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026.

Historically, such conditions have supported Bitcoin as looser monetary policy boosts liquidity and risk assets. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected print could delay easing expectations and weigh on BTC.

Market reaction has been mixed in recent months. Despite November’s miss, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $91,000 before stabilizing.

As of this writing, BTC trades for $75,908 amid broader risk-off sentiment and government shutdown concerns.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

A weak JOLTS reading could act as a relief trigger if it aligns with projections of unemployment rising toward 4.5% in 2026.

ADP Employment Report

Wednesday’s ADP Employment report, released around 8:15 AM ET, estimates private-sector job growth and often sets the tone ahead of Friday’s official payrolls.

Forecasts point to 45,000 jobs added in January, modestly above December’s 41,000, though the broader consensus ranges closer to 47,000.

For Bitcoin, the direction matters more than the number. A downside miss could revive recession fears and accelerate bets on earlier or deeper Fed rate cuts—conditions that have historically favored BTC during liquidity-driven rallies.

Stronger data, by contrast, would suggest labor resilience and reduce the urgency to ease, potentially pressuring crypto prices.

Earlier mixed jobs data produced little immediate BTC reaction, but subsequent weaker payrolls helped drive a rally toward $92,000.

With Bitcoin now trading defensively amid ETF outflows and macro uncertainty, a soft ADP print could help stabilize sentiment heading into Friday’s report.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 31 will be released at 8:30 AM ET, offering one of the timeliest snapshots of labor market stress. It would indicate the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time that week.  

Claims are expected at 212,000, slightly above the prior week’s 209,000, which already exceeded forecasts.