Uber CEO Says Robots Could Replace Human Drivers by 2040

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi predicted that robot drivers will replace human drivers at scale in 15 to 20 years in an autonomous future, as long as several factors fall into place in the meantime.

“If you fast-forward 15, 20 years, I think eventually the cars are going to be autonomous…,” Khosrowshahi said during a session at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington, D.C. called “AI and the Next Tech Revolution.”

That will be true for Uber’s fleet and other vehicles at large for one main reason, he said.

“There’s very strong evidence to believe that robot drivers are going to be safer than human drivers,” Khosrowshahi said. “They’re not going to get distracted. … This software is learning, is getting retrained every single day based on the world as it is, so they will be safer.”

Car crashes involving autonomous vehicles (AVs) might grab headlines, but data on whether they are safer than human drivers is mixed. Some studies show that AVs are generally “safer” than human-driven vehicles but other studies show the opposite, according to a paper by researchers from the University of Central Florida.

Nevertheless, a supporting ecosystem must be set up before AVs can even be ubiquitous.

“There’s a lot more to autonomous that needs to happen … at scale,” Khosrowshahi said.

First, there must be a consistent regulatory environment on a national basis, he said. There also needs to be ground operations, depots for cleaning and maintenance as well as recharging stations.

In Austin, Uber is servicing Google’s Waymo autonomous vehicles. Next year, the city will see “hundreds” of Waymos on Uber, Khosrowshahi said. The same goes for Atlanta.

However, the cost of autonomous cars needs to come down for operators to make a profit so AVs can be everywhere.

“Right now, these cars cost hundreds of thousands of dollars,” he said. “You’ve got to bring them down to tens of thousands of dollars.”

Finally, consumers must be willing to ride in these cars at sufficiently high numbers for operators to survive and thrive.

“This is incredibly expensive technology and incredibly expensive vehicles that you’ve got to make profitable over a period of time,” he said.

Read also: A New Kind of Uber: Taking a Spin in Waymo’s Self-Driving Car

Autonomous driving technology is getting better, Khosrowshahi said during the session.

“The AIs now are acting in much more human ways,” he said.

For example, like a human driver, AVs will start edging into another lane if they’re turning.

“So, you will see autonomous drivers who drive more and more like a super-safe human,” Khosrowshahi said.

However, the safety threshold for a robot driver is higher than for a human driver.

“Humans understand that humans are fallible,” he said. “They’re not OK with software” failing.

Khosrowshahi dismissed concerns about competition from Tesla, which has signaled intentions to dominate the robotaxi market.

“I don’t think that there will be a winner-take-all,” Khosrowshahi said. “The drama is winner-take-all, but I think that the transportation industry is a trillion-plus dollar industry. You could argue that rideshare is going to finally beat personal car ownership in a world where you’ve got robots driving all over the place.”

When asked about the timeline for expanding autonomous vehicle services to East Coast cities such as Washington D.C. and New York, Khosrowshahi said it all depends on local regulations.

“Right now, I’d say California and Texas are the most open markets,” he said.

As for tariffs aimed at protecting U.S. manufacturers, Khosrowshahi said while protective measures may help, they could lull companies into complacency instead of staying competitive.

“Tariffs in some ways are designed to protect local manufacturers,” he said. “The issue with tariffs is that sometimes that protection removes the need for vicious competition. And vicious competition is … what gets you to be best of breed. So, if the tariff policy results in companies who have it easier and rest on their laurels, no, it’s not going to work.”

For now, Khosrowshahi said business is “pretty consistent” despite macroeconomic turmoil since the company is “recession resistant.”

In economic downturns, more people tend to drive for the platform, bringing down costs and helping maintain volume, he said. People on a tighter budget might cancel the European vacation, but they will still want to do things like order out.

“We specialize in small treats, not big treats,” he said.

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