What are the odds of getting a knife in Counter-Strike 2?

Opening cases in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) has become exceedingly popular in recent years, giving you the chance of unlocking some skins that are not only rare but also incredibly valuable, if you get the right pull.

Most of the time, it is knives that come out on top but these are annoyingly rare finds, so here, we’ll take a look at what the percentages are on getting knives in CS2 so you know what you’re in for when opening a bunch of cases.

What are the CS2 knife odds?

As just stated, the chance of getting a knife in CS2 is pretty slim, and even more minute to get one that’s in Factory New condition with a pattern that’s desirable.

Luckily, Valve has disclosed the official drop rates for CS2 cases and here is the full percentage list to take a look at:

• Mil-Spec (Blue): ~79.92%
• Restricted (Purple): ~15.98%
• Classified (Pink): ~3.2%
• Covert (Red): ~0.64%
• Exceedingly Rare (Gold): ~0.26%

The “Exceedingly Rare” category includes the all-important knives but also gloves, depending on which cases you’re opening.

This means there’s approximately a 1 in 385 chance of obtaining such an item from a single case.

Not all Gold items are knives

It’s important to note that not every “Gold” item is a knife.

Depending on the case, you might receive gloves instead so make sure you check the contents before going wilds and buying as many cases and keys as possible.

Variability in knife value

Even if you do unbox a knife, its value can vary significantly.

Some knives, like the Butterfly Knife Gamma Doppler Emerald, can fetch prices upwards of $20,000, while others might be worth only a few hundred dollars.

The specific knife model, skin pattern, and condition all play roles in determining its market value, so getting one that meets all the requirements is slim.

The gamble of CS2 case openings

Given the low odds and variability in item value, you might find that purchasing a desired knife directly from the marketplace is more cost-effective than trying your luck with case openings.

While the excitement of unboxing is what all of this is about, it’s essential to approach it with tempered expectations and an understanding of the odds involved.

In summary, while obtaining a knife from a CS2 case is possible, it’s a rare event with many variables influencing the outcome.

You should weigh the excitement of the gamble against the potential costs to ensure you’re not going to be left with a load of trade up skins instead.

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