Why AI Won’t Replace as Many Jobs as You Think

Workers everywhere are beginning to have concerns about being replaced by AI. Advanced tech has the power to disrupt entire industries. AI is especially powerful when it comes to processing and automation.

But the reality is artificial intelligence won’t replace as many jobs as most people think.

The Long History of Tech and Automation

New AI apps emerge every day, but this isn’t the first type of novel tech disrupting our work and society. In fact, the fear of being replaced by advanced tech goes back hundreds of years. The term “luddite,” which is now used to refer to people who have an aversion to technology use, originated as a term for textile workers who rebelled against automated machinery and cotton mills in the 19th century. These textile workers feared that their jobs would be rendered obsolete. They intentionally destroyed pieces of machinery and railed against their use in the industry.

In retrospect, this seems like an overreaction. The machines were so rudimentary by today’s standards that no one would imagine they could spark fear of being replaced. Granted, that type of technology was very industry-specific. AI covers a broader range of potential jobs, but it still serves as a reminder that we should avoid catastrophizing an uncertain future.

More recently, blue collar workers have expressed concerns about being replaced by robots and automated factory machinery. And it’s true that many blue collar workers have been displaced as a result of these machines. If you already bought prescription safety glasses for your job, you have no immediate remedy or alternative course of action.

That said, factory jobs in the U.S. didn’t disappear; they transformed. Instead of manual labor on the floor, people rose to the level of supervision, guidance, and maintenance, orchestrating these machines to do the work properly. And many blue collar workers who left the industry found a place elsewhere, typically utilizing higher-level skills in the process.

The long history of tech development shows that humans are plagued with fears whenever new machines enter a common industry. But in the fullness of time, those fears are almost always revealed to be overblown.

The Excessive Promises of AI Development

We also need to draw attention to the excessive promises of AI developers and futurists. Although AI has been discussed and explored for decades, it’s only within the last few years that it has exploded in prominence and popularity. During this time, we’ve seen philosophers speculating about a potential future in which artificial intelligence offers superhuman intelligence, posing an existential risk to our civilization. We’ve also seen AI glorifiers speculating that conversational AI would accelerate the evolution of technology to the point of society being practically unrecognizable within a matter of years.

With visions and promises like these, it’s no wonder why people are concerned about potentially being replaced by AI. But of course, we’ve already seen the limitations here. It’s been several years since the earliest generative AI models began to emerge. While they’ve gotten better, they still suffer from problems like hallucinations and the inability to answer certain types of queries. Moreover, even the best AI engines pale in comparison to the best human creatives in their respective disciplines.

Many of the predictions and forecasts of top AI experts, which have been responsible for fears about job loss, have been either unfounded or miscalculated. That doesn’t mean we should immediately reject any future predictions or promises in this field. It does mean we should exercise a degree of scrutiny before allowing ourselves to panic over these types of assertions.

The Questionable Performance of AI Automation

There are some areas where AI excels. It’s extremely good at processing data, which humans are notoriously poor at. When it comes to objective calculations and drawing conclusions from large sets of information, AI simply can’t be beat. This can be applied to a wide variety of tasks and responsibilities. For example, AI can now rival doctors in terms of diagnostic accuracy.

However, the limitations of AI automation preclude it from being capable of replacing humans fully. AI doesn’t work by itself. It needs a human being to function as a prompt engineer, feeding it the information and direction it needs to accomplish a certain task. Without the right guidance, AI might answer the wrong questions or miss certain aspects of the goal, preventing it from being able to do its job properly. On top of that, AI isn’t perfect. Human beings still need to monitor and supervise AI output to verify accuracy, check the details, combine it with other pieces of information, and so on.

Because of this, it seems that for the foreseeable future, AI will inevitably require the guiding hand of human beings if we’re going to get the full value from it. That may change in the future, but given the long trajectory of AI development and relative stagnation in recent years, it seems we have arrived at a meaningful plateau.

Transformations In Lieu of Replacements

Instead of thinking in terms of replacing human jobs, we need to be thinking about transformations and displacement. AI can beat the best doctors at certain aspects of the job, but this doesn’t mean we no longer need doctors. It means that doctors have better tools with which to serve us. Similarly, lawyers, artists, pharmacists, and other white collar workers are learning to integrate AI into their work, rather than being totally replaced.

It’s possible that the lowest-skilled employees in certain industries may no longer be required. It’s also possible that some may lose their jobs as a downstream effect of AI being integrated into those industries. But broadly speaking, most roles are simply going to evolve rather than disappear as a result of AI.

The Demand for the Human Touch

On top of that, human beings still demand human engagement. If you’re dealing with a sensitive medical issue, you don’t want a machine feeding you a generic script to follow. Instead, you want a human being who will look you in the eyes and sympathize with what you’re going through.

This fundamental preference seems to be relevant to most, if not all, industries. For example, even creative pursuits seem to be encroached on by AI, but there’s a growing number of people who staunchly prefer human creations.

As our society becomes increasingly advanced and technologically sophisticated, it’s likely that this preference for human engagement and interaction will only grow. Accordingly, even if AI can do everything a human can, we may not want it to.

New Industries and Opportunities

Finally, consider that the rollout and evolution of AI is opening the door to new industries and opportunities. Software developers and tech engineers aren’t in danger of being replaced anytime soon. Prompt engineer roles are popping up in many industries, offering meaningful work to people who want to use AI as a tool for higher productivity. And it’s likely that we’ll see the emergence of even newer, more novel industries and job opportunities in the future.

In summary, AI will replace some human jobs in the future – and objectively, it already has. But because of the limitations of AI, our demand for the human touch, the rise of new industries and opportunities, and many other factors, it’s unlikely that AI will replace as many jobs as pessimists believe.

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