20 Days to a Bull Market: Analysts Weigh in on Bitcoin Halving Cycle

On April 19, 2024, Bitcoin miners witnessed their block rewards halve from 6.250 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This quadrennial event has historically sparked a bull market for Bitcoin, stirring anticipation across the crypto community.

The price action has been tepid since the Bitcoin halving. Hence, some analysts are calculating when the Bitcoin bull market will start.

Bitcoin Bull Market in 20 Days?

Crypto analyst Quinten Francois has highlighted a consistent pattern in Bitcoin’s cycles. He stated that the average Bitcoin cycle begins roughly 170 days after the halving.

Currently, 150 days have passed since the Bitcoin halving. Hence, a bullish turn could emerge in about 20 days if trends align with historical data.

Read more: What Happened at the Last Bitcoin Halving? Predictions for 2024

Adding to the bullish sentiment, analyst Lark Davis discusses the impressive quarterly returns in past halving years—2016 and 2020. He points out that the fourth quarter has consistently been bullish post-halving.

Moreover, in the years following the halving – 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin’s price action was bullish from the first to the third quarter of the year.

“If history repeats itself, it could unleash mind-blowing gains that most people can’t even fathom,” Davis stated, forecasting opportunities for growth in 2025.

Bitcoin Quarterly Returns. Source: Coinglass

Meanwhile, Ki Young Ju, founder of the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, identifies key price levels for investors to monitor. These levels represent the average cost of Bitcoin for different groups of investors and serve as significant psychological and technical markers.

The first notable level is $62,000, marking the cost basis for newly created custodial wallets and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that started trading in January 2024. Moving back to this level at a loss might induce selling as some investors might seek to get out of their trade at a break-even, potentially establishing it as a resistance zone.

Another critical level is $55,000, which is the average purchase price for Binance traders. With Bitcoin currently about 7% above this range, at approximately $58,500, this level is poised to act as near-term support.

The mining sector’s cost basis stands at $43,000. Since Bitcoin trades significantly higher, this level may act as a strong support zone in the mid-term. However, a drop below this threshold could indicate distress among miners, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Finally, the $27,000 mark is crucial as it represents the average entry point for Bitcoin whales. This level is considered long-term support and could represent the floor should the market slip into a bear phase.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Investment Strategies: What To Know

Bitcoin Cost Basis. Source: CryptoQuant

As the anticipated bull market countdown nears, the interaction of these price thresholds with established historical patterns will play a pivotal role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term price movements.

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