No, Bitcoin trading is not older than fiat or the US stock market, yet

Bitcoin’s trading hours have surpassed those of the modern US fiat stock market since the Nixon Shock, but claims of it exceeding the entire history of US stock trading or fiat globally would be premature. A closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture of market longevity and trading activity.

The crypto community recently buzzed with a statistic highlighting how Bitcoin had accumulated more trading hours than the fiat stock market following an analysis by Cory Bates.

HODL Kamikaze image of Bitcoin vs Fiat stock market trading (HODL Kamikaze)

Bates identifies how Bitcoin trading has now surpassed the fiat stock market, but it’s important to remember that this does not mean the entire US stock market history. Still, it can be derived that Bitcoin trading is older than fiat trading in the US. It is not, however, older than fiat globally.

The earliest known use of fiat currency was in China during the Song Dynasty (960–1279 CE). The government issued paper money not backed by physical commodities like gold or silver. This currency was initially backed by the state’s credit and became widely accepted for trade and taxation.

Bitcoin trading hours vs US fiat stock market

Bitcoin, launched in 2009, has amassed 123,774 active trading hours since its first recorded trade on March 17, 2010. This surpasses the 100,737 hours logged by US equities markets since August 15, 1971 – the date of the Nixon Shock, which marked a significant shift in global financial systems through the removal of the gold standard.

However, the US stock market’s history extends far beyond 1971. The New York Stock Exchange, founded in 1792, has a legacy spanning over two centuries. When accounting for this entire history, the picture changes dramatically.

Calculations based on the NYSE’s founding date reveal approximately 380,509 active trading hours up to September 6, 2024. This figure dwarfs Bitcoin’s current tally despite the digital asset’s 24/7 trading schedule.

Bitcoin’s round-the-clock availability gives it a significant advantage in accumulating trading hours. The traditional stock market operates on a more limited schedule, typically 6.5 hours per day, five days a week, excluding holidays.

Given Bitcoin’s continuous trading, projections indicate it will take until around April 15, 2053, for the digital asset to truly surpass the total trading hours of the US stock market’s entire history. This assumes both markets continue operating under their current schedules without significant disruptions.

However, it’s crucial to note that trading hours alone do not fully capture market depth, liquidity, or overall economic impact. The US stock market remains a cornerstone of global finance, with a depth and breadth of listed companies and trading volume that Bitcoin has yet to match.

While Bitcoin has made remarkable strides in its short existence, the full weight of the US stock market’s centuries-long history remains a formidable benchmark.

A complete history of fiat money trading

Bitcoin’s journey, though rapid, still has decades to go before it can genuinely claim to have outlasted the cumulative trading hours of America’s storied stock markets. Further, when assessing the claim that it has also surpassed fiat, forex markets have been available 24 hours a day on weekdays since 1971.

Estimating the total trading hours for fiat currency globally presents a unique challenge due to the staggered historical adoption of fiat systems. While fiat currency in some form has been used since ancient China, modern trading hours only became consistent in the 20th century, particularly after the transition away from the gold standard following the Nixon Shock in 1971.

Before 1971, global trading hours were localized, irregular, and varied between regions. Even as fiat systems became more common, there was no unified global trading market, and exchanges operated with limited hours. However, after 1971, the emergence of the foreign exchange (forex) market became a more reliable benchmark for calculating trading hours.

Today, modern forex trading operates approximately 120 hours per week (24 hours a day, five days a week). Using this as a baseline, it can be estimated that since 1971, there have been about 6,240 hours of fiat trading per year. Over the 53 years from 1971 to 2024, that would amount to roughly 330,720 trading hours for fiat in modern global markets.

In summary, while Bitcoin has surpassed the post-1971 US fiat equities market in terms of trading hours, the cumulative trading hours of global fiat trading since the inception of organized global forex markets are significantly higher.

Thus, Bitcoin has not surpassed the total global trading hours of fiat currencies—neither in terms of modern forex trading nor when considering the deep history of fiat money globally. Still, unless major forex markets are also opened for weekends, Bitcoin could theoretically catch up eventually. However, Some brokerages allow limited weekend trading for the most popular forex pairs.

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