Trump’s odds surge in prediction markets, hitting two-month high on Polymarket
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election have climbed to their highest level in over two months on the top prediction platform, Polymarket.
Polymarket is a decentralized betting platform that functions similarly to sports betting apps like DraftKings, but allows users to place wagers on a wide range of topics beyond just sports.
At the time of writing, Polymarket priced in a 55.9% chance of a Trump win versus Vice President Kamala Harris’ 43.5%. It extends the former president’s odds to their highest level since early August—shortly after Harris took over the Democratic nomination from President Joe Biden. More than $1.6 billion has been wagered on the November election.
Prediction platform shows Trump leading in the U.S. elections. Credit: Polymarket
According to Election Betting Odds, which aggregates victory probabilities from platforms like Polymarket, it is the first time since September 10 that Trump has overtaken Harris as the favored candidate.
Another prediction platform, Kalshi, also shows Trump leading over Harris. ReadWrite reported earlier this month that the market had been cleared to facilitate Americans’ bets on election results following a ruling by the US Court of Appeals. Meanwhile, PredictIt shows only a 1% lead for Trump.
Why has there been a swing towards Trump on betting platforms?It is unclear why there has been a swing towards Trump, however, on Sunday (Oct. 6), Elon Musk wrote on X that “Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets.” He added: “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024
WIRED reports that a day after the billionaire’s post, Trump was up by nearly 10 points on the Polymarket platform.
Some social media users pointed out that the shift in Trump’s odds coincided with an anonymous bettor, known as “Fredi9999,” increasing their wager on a Trump victory to over $4 million.
Unlike PredictIt or Kalshi, Polymarket doesn’t impose limits on individual bettors, as it operates as an “offshore” platform and isn’t subject to the same federal regulations. This suggests that the change in Trump’s odds on Polymarket may have been driven by large bets from one or a few high-stakes players rather than a major shift in the overall election landscape.
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